The one who gets pirated first is the one who will succeed?
Well, that's one way of looking at it.
My view is that any copy protection system, no matter how sophisticated, can be cracked. It's just a matter of how tenaciously determined the hacker is.
Why not look at it in the reverse?
Is it the format that gets hacked first becomes the one to succeed first? Or is it the format that succeeds first becomes the one to get hacked first?
Take the case of DVD-A and SACD, where decryption tools are still very crude. Not much development there because the formats are commercial failures. Hackers are not investing much effort in decryption simply because they're not interested.
Oh no...HD-DVD is now in "upperhand" over Blu-Ray/PS3. The one who gets pirated first is the one who will succeed?
HD DVD already had the upper hand even before the hack rumor circulated.