Take the lotto example. Very small chance that you will win. But, your chances of winning is the same as the winning ticket's.
Someone always wins the Lotto. Why? Because the game was designed so that someone will always win.
Why was it designed that way? Because if winnings are too infrequent, customers will decrease. Someone has to win, so that customers will be inspired to bet.
What is the probability for a single 6 - 49 bet? Computed as 49! / [6! × (49 - 6)!], the probability is 13,983,816.
If there are 99,000,000 Filipinos, just 1/4 of that is 25,000,000. That's sufficient to get a winning number including rollovers, and that's before considering that many customers bet several combinations per draw.
If the probability for a single bet is 1.4 x 10
7, what is the probability that someone will win the Lotto? 100%, because the draw is rolled over until someone wins.
Now, let's compare with abiogenesis.
Compared with the 1 chance in 1.4x10
7 for Lotto, what is the chance for abiogenesis?
Based on the probability of a 300-molecule-long protein forming by total random chance, it's estimated to be 1 in 2.4x10
390. Based on the probability of the chance formation of a hypothetical functional simple cell, it's worse than 1 in 10
57800.
To appreciate how large a 10
390 and a 10
57800 denominator are, compare that with the number of all the atoms in the observable universe, which is 10
80.
These numbers are too astounding to comprehend. Fred Hoyle, British mathematician and astronomer, using analogies to try to convey the immensity of the problem, said the probability of the formation of just
one of the many proteins on which life depends is comparable to that of the solar system packed full of blind people randomly shuffling Rubik’s cubes all arriving at the solution at the same time --- and this is the chance of getting only
one of the 400 or more proteins of the hypothetical minimum cell proposed by evolutionists (real world ‘simple’ bacteria have about 2,000 proteins and are incredibly complex).
That's hardly comparable to Lotto, which is designed so that someone should always win.