With 11 games left from their schedules, I think the Heat will end up #1 in the East based on the respective teams they will still be playing.
MIL, TOR, MIL, MIN, NY, BKN, MEM, IND, ATL, WAS, PHI
I predict they win at least 8 of their last 11 games.
Looking over at the Pacers' schedules of their last 8 games.
CLE, SAS, DET, TOR, ATL, MIL, MIA, OKC
With the way they're playing, i probably think they end up with a 4 - 4 record so they are not assured of the #1 seed in the East.