3D: The New Format War
At the NABShow this year, which starts tomorrow in Las Vegas, one thing is going to be very clear - 3D Blu-ray is no closer to being a reality than it was last year. Unfortunately, the problem - once again - comes down to too many companies wanting to use their own standard for 3D home presentation. For DVD, it took so long to decide on a single 3D format - until January of this year - that no one seems to care. Unfortunately, 3D on Blu-ray may be positioning itself for a similar failure.
The Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers (SMPTE) is expected to being talks on a standardized 3D format this summer, but that will likely have to wait to be published until mid-2010. The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) is also working on their own, separate standard which would make the choice of 3D technology irrelevant. Brian Markwalter, VP of Technology and Standards at CEA explains, "You want to mix and match with the least amount of pain and make them independent of how the studios mastered the content and whether it got there through a Blu-ray disc or (another delivery system)."
Meanwhile, consumer electronics manufacturers are moving forward with their own technology. Panasonic made the biggest splash at this year's CES by showing off their working 3D Blu-ray technology, but it is unlikely that other manufacturers would willingly adapt the specs (and pay Panasonic royalty fees). JVC and Mitsubishi have 3D HDTVs on the market, but neither have plans for providing a player (of any format) to generate the content. Sony is not commenting at all.
The one group that could help drive a standard is the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA), but they too are stepping quietly in the 3D arena. Andy Parson, spokesperson for the BDA, stated, "We are interested in studying the possibilities of joining together the best high-definition technology with 3-D applications to create a superior consumer home theater experience." He was, however, unable to provide a date when such a study may start.
With a year lead-time required to put 3D products in the market place, it is now unlikely we will see a 3D Blu-ray standard approved before next year, and therefore, no products before 2011. And by then, it may already be too late.
