LAKERS MATH 101
The Lakers have their 15th World Championship, and it is a spectacular time to be a Los Angelino generally, and a Lakers fan specifically. The parade will be one of the highlights of the year in SoCal, and I'm excited to be a part of our broadcast on 710 ESPN with a position at the Coliseum.
The question is, "Can Dr. Buss and Mitch Kupchak keep this team together?" I was doing some Laker math today, and it's going to be financially demanding for the Buss family. Here's how I see it.
KOBE BRYANT
He can opt out of the final 2 years of his contract. He's currently set to earn $24M in 2009-2010 and $24.8M in 2010-2011. There's one theory out there that says Kobe could opt out and take less to make it easier for the Lakers to sign Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza. I believe that's complete "pie-in-the-sky." C'mon. This is potentially Kobe's last big contract. If he opts out, he's in line for 5yrs and $135M - $25M next season, $26M in 2010-2011, $27M in 2011-2012, $28M in 2012-2013 and $29M in 2013-2014. How could you blame Kobe for getting what is rightfully his. God knows that he has earned every penny of it.
TREVOR ARIZA
I've done my own casual analysis, and, given that Trevor earned about $3M this year and that he's only 23yo, 6yrs-$48M seems about right. That would mean $6M next season, $7M in 2010-2011, $8M in 2011-2012, $8.5M in 2012-2013, $9M in 2013-2014 and 9.5M in 2014-2015. It is possible that he could get a much bigger offer somewhere else, and it's conceivable that he would take less to be a part of a very special championship group.
LAMAR ODOM
Made $11.5M this year, and there's a chance that a bad team with a bunch of cap room could make a big offer (Memphis, Charlotte, New Jersey or Minnesota), but that seems unlikely. LO will have to take less. Maybe something like 3yrs-$27M gets it done with a nice club option for 2012-2013 that provides incentive without keeping the Lakers on the hook for a big number for a 33yo Candy Man.
SHANNON BROWN
Appears to be an unrestricted free agent. He made $800,000 this year and was a steal.Possible 2yrs-$5M gets him to stay and develop.
JOSH POWELL
Lakers hold an option for next season at $959,000. That seems like a no-brainer.
These guys are already under contract with their 2009-2010 salary.
PAU GASOL - $16,451,250
ANDREW BYNUM - $12,526,998
ADAM MORRISON - $5,257,258
DEREK FISHER - $5,000,000
SASHA VUJACIC - $5,000,000
LUKE WALTON - $4,840,000
JORDAN FARMAR -$1,947,240
If all of those deals work out in my scenario, the Lakers will have a team payroll of $92,981,746 for next season. That would be $23,581,746 OVER the proposed luxury tax threshhold of $69.4M. The only team with a higher payroll in 2008-09 is the Knicks with $98.4M.
In an ideal world, Ariza, LO and Shannon Brown all return, but this will be a test of Dr. Jerry Buss' willingness to pay a big luxury tax number. In a struggling economy, when league revenues are down, is it unfair to expect any league owner to pay this kind of toll?
Source: 710 ESPN's "SMOG" - Steve Mason's Blog