NBA CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Capsule Previews (c/o AP)
EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 CHICAGO BULLS (62-20, 4-1) vs. No. 5 ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38, 4-2)
Season series: Bulls, 2-1. All three meetings were in a three-week span in March, and the Bulls should have won all three. They opened the March 2 game at Atlanta with a 14-0 lead and were ahead into the final minute before falling 83-80. Chicago then held the Hawks to 26 second-half points in a 94-76 home victory on March 11 before returning to Atlanta and leading by as many as 47 in a 114-81 rout on March 22. Derrick Rose was only 5 for 21 for 12 points in the loss, missing all six 3-pointers, before averaging 32 points in the victories and going 6 of 8 beyond the arc in the finale.
Story line: The top-seeded Bulls were tested by scrappy Indiana in the first round, but recent history says things could be easier in this series. The Hawks have been swept in the conference semifinals each of the last two years, first by Cleveland and then Orlando—a loss Atlanta avenged in the first round.
Key Matchup I: Joakim Noah vs. Al Horford. Horford dominated his former Florida teammate in Atlanta’s victory, finishing with 31 points and 16 rebounds, and making the go-ahead dunk with 29 seconds left. But the All-Star center totaled only 20 points in the Hawks’ two losses.
Key Matchup II: Kyle Korver vs. Jamal Crawford. The series could swing on the shooting of the two reserve guards. Korver was 10 for 17 from behind the arc in the first round, making key 3-pointers down the stretch in Games 1 and 2. Crawford scored more than 20 points in each of the first four games against Orlando, leading Atlanta with 20.5 per game.
X-Factor: Keith Bogans. The defensive specialist’s primary responsibility will be to contain Hawks All-Star guard Joe Johnson. But the Bulls’ offense looks a lot better when he is also hitting his outside shots, such as when he was 5 of 7 on 3-pointers in the clinching 116-89 victory over Indiana in Game 5.
Prediction: Bulls in 5.
No. 2 MIAMI HEAT (58-24, 4-1) vs. No. 3 BOSTON CELTICS (56-26, 4-0)
Season series: Celtics, 3-1. Boston won the first three meetings, including the Heat’s first game together in the NBA’s season opener. Miami won the only game that wasn’t close, a 100-77 rout on April 10 that essentially gave the Heat the No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in this series. LeBron James averaged 28.8 points despite shooting 3 of 15 from 3-point range, but Dwyane Wade scored only 12.8 points per game, his lowest against any opponent.
Story line: Eagerly awaited matchup that was widely expected to be the Eastern Conference final before the season, this meeting of Big Threes comes one round earlier. James, Wade and Chris Bosh try to stop the Boston trio of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen as it continues the defense of its conference title.
Key matchup I: Wade vs. Allen. Allen averaged 20.3 points against Miami, going 16 of 28 (57 percent) from 3-point range and hitting seven 3s en route to 35 points in Boston’s 112-107 road victory on Nov. 11. He was lethal in the first round, hitting 17 of 26 (65 percent) from beyond the arc in a sweep of New York. Wade hit only 16 of 57 shots (28 percent) against Boston, by far his worst against any opponent.
Key matchup II: Bosh vs. Garnett. Bosh had an embarrassing debut with the Heat, getting held to eight points on 3-of-11 shooting in Boston’s victory. He played better from there, making 19 of 29 shots against the Celtics’ tough defense in the final three meetings. Garnett, the leader of that defense, showed he’s still a reliable offensive option for the Celtics in the first round, hitting the go-ahead basket with 14 seconds left in Game 2, then scoring 20 of his 26 points in the second half of Game 4.
X-factor: Mario Chalmers. The Celtics have a decided advantage at point guard, where All-Star Rajon Rondo was sensational against the Knicks in the first round. The Heat can make the matchup competitive if Chalmers delivers more outings like his 20-point, six 3-pointer performance off the bench in the series clincher against Philadelphia.
Prediction: Heat in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
No. 2 LOS ANGELES LAKERS (57-25, 4-2) vs. No. 3 DALLAS MAVERICKS (57-25, 4-2)
Season series: Lakers, 2-1. The Lakers won the final two meetings, clinching the season series and earning the tiebreaker that gave them home-court advantage in this matchup with a 110-82 victory at Staples Center on March 31. The Mavericks shot 55 percent in their 109-100 victory on Jan. 19, then were limited to 86.5 points per game in their losses. Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom both had two double-doubles for the Lakers, while Kobe Bryant averaged 21.7 points. Dirk Nowitzki averaged 22, but didn't have much help in the two losses.
Story line: The Lakers struggled more than expected with New Orleans in the first round, but they seemed to play better as the postseason went along last year and will hope to do the same this spring. Dallas, a popular pick to be upset by Portland in the first round, instead controlled most of the last two games to wrap up the series.
Key Matchup I: Bynum vs. Tyson Chandler. Bynum had an excellent series against the Hornets, averaging 15.2 points and 10.3 rebounds while shooting 56 percent from the field. He was even better in two wins against the Mavericks, averaging 20 points and 14 boards. Chandler is counted on mostly for his defense, but was an all-around force in the pivotal Game 5 against Portland, finishing with 14 points and 20 rebounds - 13 offensive.
Key Matchup II: Odom vs. Jason Terry. Odom, this season's top sixth man, can impact a game in multiple ways even when his shooting is off, as it was while going 4 for 16 from 3-point range in the first round. But the Mavericks need Terry, the 2009 winner, to be a scorer and he failed in the two losses against the Lakers. After scoring 22 on 9-of-15 shooting in Dallas' lone win, he shot just 8 of 25 in the two games in March, averaging 9.0 points.
X-Factor: Jason Kidd. When he played well, the Mavs won, as he had 21 points and 10 assists in the Jan. 19 game. But the veteran point guard wasn't a factor in the other meetings, totaling just 11 points and 15 assists.
Prediction: Lakers in 5.
No. 4 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (55-27, 4-1) vs. No. 8 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-36, 4-2)
Season series: Grizzlies, 3-1. Both teams scored over 100 points in every game. The Grizzlies won both games at Memphis and pulled out a 105-101 overtime victory at Oklahoma City on Feb. 8. However, only one meeting came after both teams made significant moves before the trade deadline, and the Grizzlies haven't faced the Thunder with Kendrick Perkins in the lineup. Kevin Durant averaged 30.5 points, scoring 40 in Oklahoma City's lone win, and Russell Westbrook added 24.5 points and 9.0 assists.
Story line: After eliminating San Antonio on Friday night to become only the second No. 8 seed to beat a No. 1 in a seven-game series, the Grizzlies have a short turnaround before Game 1 Sunday afternoon at Oklahoma City. They match up well with the Thunder, but have to find an answer for Durant, the leading scorer in the playoffs thus far with 32.4 points per game in the first round.
Key matchup I: Serge Ibaka vs. Zach Randolph. Randolph averaged 26.5 points and 13 rebounds against the Thunder, but his best success came back when Oklahoma City was using Jeff Green as its undersized power forward. The Thunder match up better now there with Ibaka, who proved he's no longer just a shot blocker by recording three double-doubles in the first round against Denver, including a 22-point, 16-rebound performance in Game 3.
Key matchup II: Durant and Westbrook vs. Tony Allen and Shane Battier. Durant is nearly unstoppable when his long jumpers are falling the way they were against the Nuggets, but the Grizzlies have two good perimeter defenders to use on the Thunder's All-Star duo. Allen, who played at Oklahoma State, will provide a bonus if he scores the way he did against the Thunder in the regular season, averaging 18.8 for his best showing against any team.
X-factor: Perkins. The Thunder got him for his defense and toughness against West teams they could see in the postseason, though probably never expected Memphis would be one of them. Randolph and Marc Gasol overwhelmed Tim Duncan in the last round, and Perkins will have to do a better job of protecting the paint.
Prediction: Thunder in 7.
