That's the beauty of unprotected picks versus the ones Orlando got. No matter how the Nets do during the regular season, those picks still have the potential to maybe turn out to be the 1st overall selection. A small percentage of that happening yes. But it can still happen. Still better than what you have now where your pick has absolutely 0% chance of landing in the lottery.
This how the protected draft picks work, an example would be the pick the magic got from the sixers. In the first year of it's eligibility, the sixers protects the top 11, if philly keeps the pick, then it rolls over the following year and they get to protect the top 8, if again philly gets the pick, the next year the protection expires. So that means, if it happens that Philly gets the Top 1 pick on that 3rd year where the draft right was rolled over, Orlando gets it. So yes, these picks Orlando got still has the chance of getting in the lottery even the Top 1. It's similar to the protected picks they got from LA and Denver although each vary in the level of agreement.
Those picks are a lot better than a pick coming from a Howard+Deron+Wallace+Johnson dynasty where they will be dominating the East for quite some time leaving the magic with a very late first rounder. Those picks from the Nets will have 0% chance of landing in the lottery with that lineup unless Howard and Deron gets a career ending injury leaving the Nets in the bottom 14
Brook Lopez is already an nba caliber starting Center at 24. He puts up about 17ppg and 7rpg for his career. These kinds of centers don't grow on tress as they say. And he has yet to approach his prime years so the potential to be a 20-10 center is there. Kris Humphries is a double-double figure contributor averaging 14ppg and 11rpg. At 27, also has yet to approach his prime. Afflalo while being a starting 2, his talents are quite common in today's NBA. They are a dime a dozen. The likelihood of finding a player similar to Afflalo's talents are significantly better than finding a seven foot big that produces numbers to what Lopez produces. Harrington at 32 who scores as much as Humphries during the 2012 season, isn't that much effective in rebounding at 6ppg. Humphries is younger, more athletic, more active, rebounds better, quicker, you can always plug in Humphries at that 6th man role and since he is younger, can potentially produce better results. You also already have Glen Davis who plays similarly and is 6 years younger. Big Baby is more versatile since you can plug him at the 5 and can produce unlike Harrington who is strictly a power forward. Marshon Brooks on potential likewise would seem to be more talented than JJ Reddick. As for Harkless, it just adds to the logjam at the 3 and 4 spots where you already have Davis, Hedo, Harrington and Nicholson. And none of those are centers.
Lopez and Humphries were stat-padders on a bottom team. Brook's Foot is also a concern. Plus they are heavily overpaid. If you are rebuilding a team, you don't take on those types of players that will eat your cap space and just get 20 wins in return. Take a look at NJ's record since they got Broken Foot Lopez:
W L
11-12 22 44
10-11 24 58
09-10 12 70
08-09 34 48
Humphries won't do any better. There's a log jam in the PF post in Orlando and I like BBD's hustle more than the person voted as the most-hated NBA player in 2011. I also want ORL to showcase Andrew Nicholson as the backup PF, having Humphries will just hinder ANich's development. And yes, Humphries was part of that very successful 09-10 campaign of the Nets.
BL + KH along with Hedo's contract will make ORL have the league's most undesirable contracts in the front court. Good luck in Henny trading those 3 and goodbye to Orlando's rebuilding plans.
With Orlando's lineup right now, I believe they won't have that much of a hard time matching that 20-win record by the Nets.
Marshon Brooks, is also just a potential. He can be streaky at times but I got turned off when a defensive guard like Liggins(circa the orlando summer league game) shot him down and went 0-10. He can't create his own shot. Struggled to find his rhythm. He also led the Nets to have the worst record.... in the summer league!
Harkless natural post is SF. Orlando is pretty thin there(Turk, QRich), I just hope he can contribute immediately by taking advantage of the rotation. The center rotation would be given to Vucevic and Ayon with BBD probably also gonna to get some minutes.
For me, I want all the new guys to get some minutes to show what their capable of. It's expected that ORL wouldn't make the playoffs this year. I'd actually be happy if we even reach 30 wins. I just want ORL to focus on player development this year because there's too much to look forward to after next season.
Which brings us back to what Hennigan wants. If he totally rebuilds from scratch, The returns for Brook Lopez would probably be a top 5-8 protected pick. Humphries for a late 1st rounder... or both for a huge trade exception. Afflalo would probably be 2 second round picks. Vucevic late first rounder or 2nd round pick. Harrington..... nothing but a filler for future trades.
If the Magic want to at least stay conpetitive, Lopez immidiately plugs a hole at center and Humphries at the 4. You can have your 6th man in Big Baby. If not, Lopez and Humphries would fetch more in the open market than Afflalo and Harrington will.
Afflalo's talent is rare. How many defensive shooting guards are there? And how many of them can score like Afflalo?
Vucevic was taken in the first round last season. I don't contest anything about Harrington but his contract is decent vs either Kardashian's or Lopez. Plus on a battle of rebounds between Harrington and Lopez, who are you gonna choose?
With Vucevic, you are banking on potential. He may or may not pan out. Lopez right now is a starter-quality center. He is already established. The problem with Vucevic though is he seems to be soft. Gortat and Asik are bangers. Vucevic is more finesse in the mold of a Pau Gasol. And in the NBA, a finesse center having success in today's game is rare. And if you are going for potential, Houston's 1st round picks have more upside. Royce White has been compared to the great Charles Barkley in both versatilty and quickness for his size. Why settle on an Andre Iguodala/Trevor Ariza clone in Harkless when you can have Sir Charles.
One thing you're forgetting though is there's a big difference between the picks the Nets and Rockets are willing to offer. And these are unprotected lottery picks. Picks from the Nets and Rockets still have a chance of landing Orlando the 1st to 3rd overall selections.
I agree on the Vucevic part. I just hope he pans out better than projected. I wouldn't say he's that soft. He has a good post game down low and rebounds well. His defense though needs tuning because I don't think he can defend properly without fouling.
Regarding the Houston trade, there might be something off which is why it didn't push through. Probably they aren't willing to take all of Orlando's garbage since they just offered Lin and Asik huge contracts. This is on top of giving up their rookies and good picks just to get Howard. We would never know the exact details since most were just rumors.
All in all, The highlight of the trade isn't just the picks and the pieces Orlando got but it's actually the financial flexibility they acquired to be able to sign all-star caliber free agents in the future. This along with the multitude of picks the Magic possess which includes their own first rounders, can hopefully make them forget about the dwightmare