2013 NBA PLAYOFFS
Capsule Previews
From the Associated Press
EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 MIAMI HEAT (66-16) vs. No. 8 MILWAUKEE BUCKS (38-44)
Season series: Heat, 3-1. Milwaukee took Miami to overtime in the first meeting this season before losing 113-106, then won a wild game in December where the Bucks led by 12 at halftime, trailed by two entering the fourth, then outscored Miami 35-14 in the final 12 minutes for a 104-85 romp. After that, it was all Miami, with the Heat winning 107-94 on the road in March and then 94-83 at home last week.
Story line: The road toward what the Heat hope is a repeat championship finally gets underway, after a regular season that included a 27-game winning streak and the best record in the NBA. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined to average 48 points and both had their best-shooting seasons. The Bucks haven't won a playoff series since 2001, and lost 12 of their final 16 games.
Key Matchup I: James vs. Everybody. The Bucks will have to send a bunch of different bodies and looks toward the reigning MVP in an effort to keep him guessing, and to get the Heat offense out of sorts. Milwaukee's only win against Miami this season was a game where the Bucks had a 25-2 edge in points off turnovers. They'll need massive efforts like that again in this series.
Key Matchup II: Mario Chalmers vs. Brandon Jennings. Chalmers has been a huge threat from 3-point range this season and is far more consistent now than he was even a couple years ago. But Jennings always seems to find a way against the Heat, averaging 23.8 points against Miami this season on 46 percent shooting.
X-Factor: Larry Sanders, only because he averaged one technical foul every 24 minutes against Miami this season, and he'll need to be on the floor if Milwaukee will succeed in its quest to at least slow Chris Bosh.
Prediction: Heat in 5.
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No. 2 NEW YORK KNICKS (54-28) vs. No. 7 BOSTON CELTICS (41-40)
Season series: Knicks, 3-1. New York won the season series for the first time since 2003-04, also the last time it won twice in Boston. Carmelo Anthony averaged 25.3 points but made his biggest news off the court, when he confronted Kevin Garnett outside Boston's team bus after the two exchanged words during the Celtics' 102-96 victory in New York on Jan. 7. The Knicks then won the last three meetings.
Story line: After ending the Celtics' five-year reign as Atlantic Division champions with their first division title since 1994, the Knicks will try to win a playoff series for the first time since 2000. Boston has never lost in the first round with Garnett and Paul Pierce.
Key matchup I: Tyson Chandler vs. Garnett. Neither center, both former Defensive Players of the Year, appeared in the final two meetings, and Garnett's absence was particularly noticed when the Knicks scored 100 or more in both games. Chandler missed most of the final weeks with a bulging disk but is set to play.
Key matchup II: J.R. Smith vs. Jason Terry. Terry averaged only 5.5 points and shot poorly against the Knicks during a somewhat disappointing season for the former Sixth Man award winner. Smith made himself a strong candidate for this season's honor with his second-half play, including a 32-point performance in Boston on March 26.
X-factor: Chris Copeland. The former pro player in Europe has become a surprising contributor in his rookie NBA season for the Knicks and seems to have found a place in the rotation. He scored 22 in the last meeting against Boston and had a pair of 30-point games to end the regular season.
Prediction: Knicks in 7.
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No. 3 INDIANA PACERS (49-32) vs. No. 6 ATLANTA HAWKS (44-38)
Season series: Tied, 2-2. Both teams went 2-0 at home. Here's how even the season series was — the Pacers outscored the Hawks 400-395 in the four games, while the Hawks held tiny edges in rebounding (164-163), points in the paint (160-154) and fast-break points (51-48).
Story line: Neither team is exactly hitting the postseason in high gear, with the Pacers having lost five of their final six games and the Hawks going 11-15 since the start of March — then looking downright awful for the final two games, losses that at least got them out of the Miami side of the East bracket. If there is a series that will wind up being a grind-it-out, low-scoring one in the opening round of these playoffs, this one could be the most likely candidate.
Key Matchup I: David West vs. Josh Smith. Simply put, whichever guy plays better will probably see his team win the series. West has been relatively consistent all year and his 54-percent field-goal shooting since the All-Star break suggests he's in the type of form the Pacers would want. Smith could be playing his final games with the Hawks, with free agency looming for him this summer. His approach to this series might give some hints as to whether his bags are already packed.
Key Matchup II: Roy Hibbert vs. Al Horford. Hibbert is obviously a matchup nightmare for everyone because of his size, but Horford tends to control the paint using athleticism, so this one would look to be one of those classic-clash-of-styles situations. Horford averaged 16 points against Indiana in the regular season, Hibbert averaged only 9.5 against Atlanta.
X-Factor: Frank Vogel. The Indiana coach turned into a master motivator last season when Indiana ended up bowing to Miami in six games, though it was a series where the Pacers had the eventual champions down 2-1. Even with no hope for Danny Granger's return this season, if Vogel can get the "gold swagger" mode back, Indiana could be dangerous.
Prediction: Pacers in 6.
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No. 4 BROOKLYN NETS (49-33) vs. No. 5 CHICAGO BULLS (45-37)
Season series: Bulls, 3-1. Chicago had an 11-point victory, while the other three games were decided by four points, two and one. The Bulls, never fully healthy, were without Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich in their lone loss, a 93-89 defeat in Brooklyn on Feb. 1.
Story line: Ending a successful first season in Brooklyn with the franchise's first playoff appearance since 2007, the Nets open against the resilient Bulls, who made it to the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff standings even while playing all season without Derrick Rose.
Key matchup I: Deron Williams vs. Hinrich and Nate Robinson — or Rose? Williams had a terrific second half of the season after treatment for his ankles around the All-Star break, though one of his poor performances during that span was a 4-for-12 night in a 96-85 loss at Chicago on March 2. Rose could still play, unlikely as it seems, after sitting out all season following major knee surgery. But the Bulls have gotten by without him thanks in part to Robinson, who had three 12-point games against Brooklyn.
Key matchup II: Brook Lopez vs. Noah. Noah had 21 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in the lone blowout, but he missed two games and was limited down the stretch by a foot injury even when he did play. The Bulls will need his defense against fellow All-Star center Lopez, who averaged 22 points against Chicago.
X-factor: Reggie Evans. Evans had some decent scoring nights in the second half to go with his usual strong rebounding, but didn't manage a basket in three of the four games against Chicago. He shot 4 of 5 in the one Nets victory, and Brooklyn will need some offense along with his defense on Carlos Boozer.
Prediction: Nets in 7.
