Whether the shift to digital is mandatory or not, I still feel that business-entrepreneurs with existing TV franchises should be allowed go into digital television business without outright interference from vested interests in the executive and legislative branches. And to ensure a planned adoption/transition to this new tv technology, NTC must draw up the required operating guidelines for this service. As far as shut-ff dates are concerned, this should be the responsibility of Congress. I am 100% sure politicians with existing analog-tv franchises (but without the financial muscle to move to digital TV) would definitely not allow for a shut down in the next 10 years!
This is the ideal scenario I would like to see:
NTC issues the technical guidelines in the adoption of digitial television in the Philippines (The Technical Working Group of the NTC is skewing towards the European standard instead of the American standard)
Required frequencies are allotted for this purpose (They are looking at UHF Channels 49 to 51 for this)
TV networks with foresight and financial resources (ABSCBN, GMA, ABC) embarks on their respective digital rollout, strictly complying with the guidelines set by NTC (guidelines were issued by NTC in order to ensure interoperability of the set-top boxes required in homes to receive digital tv broadcasts)
Third party suppliers bring in the type-approved set top boxes to be sold to televiewers to allow reception of digital signals. Hopefully, boxes will be available at P1000 a piece. (This price would plummet if the boxes to be used is compatible with what Beijing will be adopting for the Olympics)
The financially challenged broadcasters (SBN?, UNTV?, NBN?) who chose to remain in analog (in the absence of a mandate from congress) will experience dwindling viewership as more viewers opt to watch TV signals in digital (I hope!
) Eventually forcing them out of business or to seek out partners that would finance their digital shift.
The big question now is the timeline. In the absence of a required shut off date, how long would it take for the analog players to fold and shift to digital? 5 years? 10? 20?
My fearless forecast? We will have digital tv in the next 18 months provided the NTC comes out with their guidelines and there is no interference from the government. Shut-off date? Bahala na congress dyan basta wag silang maki-alam sa digital roll-out. Risk na yan ng mga broadcasters to go digital even without a shut off date.